Werft: 44. Tag - Da isser, der Cyclone Ivy

...und wird schoen an der Kueste von Neuseeland runterrollen. Wenn die Wetterfroesche recht haben. Ich hol mal den Windgenerator runter und binde mal nen paar Sachen fest. Das fehlt jetzt auch noch gerade.

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 26/1352 UTC 2004 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE IVY [940HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 168.6E AT
261200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS,
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN
60 MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN
SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND 120 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDS CENTRE. OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST. DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 261200Z BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE
YIELDS DT5.0. MET AGREES AND PT YIELDS 4.5. CI HELD AT 5.5 GIVING
T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN CYCLONE STRUCTURE
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IVY EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH RECEDES EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. CIMMS INDICATES MINIMAL SHEAR IN
THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP IVY ON A SOUTHERLY TRACK
WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. IN THE LONGER TERM THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE IT MOVES SOUTH OF
22S. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AFTER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST:
AT 12HRS VALID AT 270000UTC NEAR 20.2S 168.6E MOV S 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

AT 24HRS VALID AT 271200UTC NEAR 22.1S 168.8E MOV S 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID AT 280000UTC NEAR 24.5S 169.3E MOV SSE 15KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

AT 48HRS VALID AT 281200UTC NEAR 27.7S 170.2E MOV SSE 20KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON IVY WILL BE ISSUED AT
262000 UTC.